My market prediction for the end of 2025

I break out the crystal ball and try to predict the next month’s stock market

As we were closing down the markets yesterday, I was thinking about my end of year predictions.

Back in September, I expected October to be a bit of a backslide in the Indexes followed by a very bullish November & December.

Well, now we’re in December.

How’s that going?

Not perfect, but I’m still bullishly optimistic about the end of the year.

The correction happened a bit later in October than I expected. And it lasted longer into November than I wanted. So, I missed that there.

Pobody’s Nerfect.

😂

However, we’ve had this pullback into the longer daily moving averages (specifically, the 50-day moving average) where support held and last week we had a nice recovery.

I think there’s a good case that we make new all-time highs before 2026.

One of my favorite indicators to check out is the Fear & Greed Index.

It takes a bunch of data around stock market behavior and creates a simple little number acting as a gauge between fear and greed. Right now, we’re sitting on the border of Extreme Fear.

Supposedly this indicates that the market feels like a significant drop is coming.

But I’ve found that the market is an equal opportunity dream-killer.

What I mean is, it likes to destroy the bulls hopes & dreams of ever higher prices (often stopping momentum just before it hits a big target area or even flushing downward when everyone thinks it should be going up).

And it doesn’t just target bulls’ dreams.

Nope.

It goes after the bears too. Usually with a vengeance because of the nature of bears having to buy back shares to cover their losses (thus triggering “short squeezes”).

I think the bears are about to have their dreams trampled.

Now, to be fair, my entire trading strategy is bullish.

I am biased that way.

I’ve got very good reasons for this that I outline in my course. But mainly it’s because that given enough time, the market has always recovered and gone on to make new highs.

Anytime the bears take charge, it’s only for a short season.

Then the bulls start running again.

I believe we’re in the midst of an epic bull stampede.

Meaning, I’m staying patient through every pullback and trusting the markets to make a recovery and move higher for the next few years.

More specifically:

I think December will have that famed “Santa Clause” rally.

The markets skipped right over that one last year. In fact, the final two weeks of 2024 were an epic flush downward. Which was fine with me, because the trades I took eventually made new highs in the early months of 2025 plus I got the tax benefit of “losing” trades in 2024.

All that to say, I don’t think this will happen this year.

My prediction?

The bulls will run ahead.

And I’ve set up my trading system to profit from that prediction.

But even if I’m wrong, and the bears do take charge, I can still book premium.

Yes, I’ve designed my trading system so that I make money when the markets go up (that makes sense), when they go sideways (that’s pretty cool), AND even when they go down (what?! How? ... that’s a secret beyond the scope of this free newsletter).

🤯

I crafted the system this way because I don’t like losing in my trades. It happens (no trade is perfect) but under 5% of the time.

I’d rather patiently win ... week ... after week ... after week.

If that sounds interesting to you, subscribe for free and check out my complimentary “Options 101” mini-masterclass. (It’s only 30 minutes and in seven bite-sized videos).

— Ricky Ketchum