Fresh surprise from yesterday’s Fed meeting

How trading balances novelty and routine

One of my favorite things about trading the markets is how fresh each day is.

Sure, the markets open and close at the same time each day (except a few holidays), and there are seasonal rhythms to how it flows, yet within that framework the market refreshes itself all the time.

This gives me both stability and exciting unknowns.

For example:

Yesterday was the long-awaited December FOMC meeting.

We got the Fed announcement of another quarter point interest rate cut (which the betting markets — I don’t gamble and would never recommend gambling, but watching it can be useful data — had as the likely outcome).

And yet...

We saw that the Fed governors are more divided over what to do about interest rates than we’ve seen in a long time. Two dissenters thought we shouldn’t even cut rates at all and one thought we should have made a deeper cut.

Plus, we also got a surprise Quantitative Easing (QE) announcement of the Fed immediately starting to buy T-bills (which nearly everyone expected not to happen until sometime next year).

Thus, a regularly scheduled meeting giving us some surprising outcomes.

The markets do this kind of thing all the time.

It’s probably easiest to see when studying the charts.

There are certain patterns that the charts make — which follows the psychology of buyers & sellers — that can be (generally) tracked and profited from.

i.e., a stock that has dipped down into its longer moving averages after making a new all-time high is probably setup for a new bullish run that will make another new all-time high.

But that’s just one general pattern.

There are many, many others.

I used to study these patterns diligently.

Looking for all kinds of edges to my “predictions” of the future market movements. Which is the basic strategy for any stock or options trader: find a setup that has a greater than coin-flip probability of moving in a certain direction and then open a trade in line with that idea and hope it works.

If it does break your way, find a good target to exit (because stocks never actually go to the moon 🌑).

If it doesn’t work, then I’d have to try and minimize my losses.

I don’t like this stressful guesswork.

Which is why I completely stopped trading that way.

Now, I find tickers I like for a bullish run long-term, sell an out of the money Put, and wait for it to work.

If it moves against me, I make adjustments while collecting even more premium, and just become patient. I know that 98% of them will work in my favor.

Basically, I win (almost) every time.

I’m done with the guessing game.

Instead, I follow my guidelines and patiently wait while my accounts double each year.

It’s worked out in 2025 so far, and I expect it to mathematically work out in 2026 too.

Also, I teach my system to those who join my expensive Community. If you’re ready to give that a 7-day trial, the link is in the footer of this email.

And if you’re not ready but would still like to access a free, 30-minute mini-masterclass on “Options 101,” then just subscribe here:

— Ricky Ketchum